Expertise Bell curve! knowing more and more about less and less.
In my previous posts, II was talking about seeking advice. talked about pedestal paradox and Dunning-Kruger effect. In this post, I will suggest why we should sometimes consider deterring from well-meaning advice from super specialists in any industry.
The specialists by their very nature know more and more about less and less thus have gaps in the area that fall a smidge beyond their expertise.
This is important for those who are exploring something new. A new product, a new service, a design a prototype and reaching out to those who have already done it.
As long as the advice is related to the process it is great, it becomes similar to an offering they already have and you are looking at something similar, it is likely to fall through the cracks between the narrow pillars of expertise. Say you are building a better ride sharing or a better search engine. You will need to think again. I will point you to the concept of Crossing the Chasm” that was introduced by the author Geoffrey A. Moore in his book “Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers”.
We have a tendency to provide more than a lending year to those individuals or organisations that are at the peak or part of the Main Street. Without realising that their business model may be antiquated. They may be the Blackberry or Palm Pilot of their times. They attract more visibility, attention and aspiration. However, by being a dominating player, any domain-specific advice may simply mean that you are lagging in terms of time in the market where they may already be peaked.
Their advice may only be good if you are doing something that is a bolt-on to the existing product or services or of benefit to whom you may be seeking advice from. Ideally, you should be hanging out with innovators and early adopters for whom the best is yet to be. Alternatively, you may like to have multiple advisors at both ends of the chasm to get a multidimensional view. No one was willing to pay heed to AirBnb during the early days. Ronald Wayne sold 10% off his share in Apple at $800 in 1976 as Apple was at early stage lacked visibility.
I also see individuals trying to create the next search engine or be the next Airbnb of a different industry and seek advice from existing leaders in the domain.
🕰 Why would existing leaders try to create competition unless the purpose is to spin in a new venture/or acquire, secondly why would you seek advice on a topic that may be a generation or two old? I would suggest that you have a look at the TED post by Bill Gross .
At this point, I will reiterate, take my advice or not at your own peril however to simplify your decision-making process to consider all advice as opinions and they are optional till they are validated.
Don’t be shy of seeking advice, do what you think is right. Even if you make wrong decisions, you will feel responsible to correct the mistake. It is not aways the correctness of the decisions it is also a chain of events that continue to course correct to the path you want to head to while enjoying the journey.
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