Decisions: What makes them better(or worse)!

Human lives are becoming complex, there is information and opinion overload and number of decisions are continually made on gut-feel

Recently, I was in discussion with a client picked that the general consensus is we make Gut-Feel or fact-based decisions. Our process of making decisions is considered dichotomous. It has become natural in our decision-making process that now we have started taking these two pilliars as sacrosanct. 

With are a juxtaposition of opinions with  gut-feel and facts we make  well rounded decisions.

In God we trust others bring data the famous saying by Edwards Deming, continues to be the anchor within business and industries that rests the decision-making process between faith and facts.  

I would suggest that we now shift the gears and ensure that the interplay of opinions is carried in the mix as it has the ability to throw the spanner in the works and at the same time make the decisions well rounded.

Many of those who have had success in business or  life have the innate ability to use the tacit knowledge and combine the dots to make gut feel based decisions. This of course is being done subconsciously.  

No matter how confident we feel after collecting facts or rely on gut feel, opinion from others can sway our decisions very rapidly. I am sure you may have come across situation where you have carefully researched the market for the next phone product, its features, operating system and found the right one that is just perfect for you and your friend tells you it is iPhone X or nothing and you have gone and purchased the brand-new iPhone X (or Samsung…but you get the picture). 

When it comes to business we collect data or facts and use the information to create insights. At times we selectively pick facts that match our hypothesis or opinions and let our biases play an important role. If you wanted to buy a Sony TV, you will try and find all the facts that reinforce your opinion. We are not trying to make the best decision, but we are taking sides and proving our point. We need to know that our and others cumulative biases can play a significant manipulative[1]role here, which of course can be taken advantage of by others.

If as a leader you chose to ignore facts and opinions, your decisions will always be challenged and considered autocratic. 

Or pure fact-based decisions ignoring (minority) opinions may end up serving the preferences of a major sub group and cause unrest.

We should never discount opinions given by customers, advisors and many others who have our best interest at mind, however take them as opinions only and not necessarily as facts. If Henry Ford took the opinions, market would always have suggested faster horses.

We can let gut feel and other people’s opinions have an interplay. These are not more than collective hunches. Though they may point us in the right direction, but as they lack facts they can as much propel us in the wrong direction. Akin to blind leading blind who may still consider earth as flat. Opinions do not require knowledge or accountability.

In business or life, a good decision can ideally be made when we rely on gut feel, which is probably carved out of intensive or even generational expertise, wide range of facts which are distilled down or peeled like layers of onion to get to the core facts, augmenting with opinions (which could also be  perceptions) can help us create leverage if we are observant.

This is akin to jumping from ten feet height and knowing you will be safe will need the fact that you are jumping in a pond and cam swim. You may still need to rely on opinion that pool still has water in it. But basing your ability to swim based on the number of books you have read is gut feel[2]

[1]Identifying the Biases Behind Your Bad Decisions

 John Beshearsand Francesca Gino - HBR October 31, 2014

[2]Dont trust your gut - Eric Bonabeau - HBR May 2003