Likelihood of venture success

Working with Founders Institute and Small Business Mentoring services, I come across start-ups and early-stage business on a regular basis.

It is great to see everyone being upbeat for success putting the probability of success to nearly 100%. However, the real number is less than 10% even if you find the odds in your favour.

This, I found had anecdotal explanations. So I decided to put together a small excel sheet that can help you input the scenarios and calculate your own probability of success if you are on that path.

Any questions or comments please feel free to reach out to me. You can download your version of the excel file here https://1drv.ms/x/s!As1I4TfzY84KkWrnTVcGBCnY1W_g?e=iC6YRf

Sameer Babbar

sbabbar@sameerbabbar.com

Venture Success Probability
	Your Business	Probability or likelihood
	You have formed an excellent team	75.00%
	There is strong and visionary leadership	75.00%
	The timing of the venture is just right	75.00%
	You have excellent and reliable suppliers	75.00%
	You are able to deal with competitive threat (pivot, acquisition, being acquired)	75.00%
	You can produce in line with market demand	75.00%
	There is a strong market demand that is growing	75.00%
	Your intellectual property is not easily replicable	75.00%
	You have strong moat around your offer	75.00%
	You and your team can persist with the emotional challenges the business brings	75.00%
	You have sufficient capital and resources	75.00%
	Combined Likelihood of success	4.22%
	for any questions comments or for feedback reach out to me at	sbabbar@sameerbabbar.com